The criteria

Main fault - always on the customer. The criteria of the selection of possible innovations are established precisely by customers - market and army. These criteria reflect either market effectiveness (i.e. the expected return from the means packed in realizing of innovation, the payback period investments), or military effectiveness (is evaluated somewhat more difficult than market, but basic idea the same: result, in this case serviceman, measured by increase in the lethal force, the radius of destruction, probability of kill of target and the like, is correlated to expenditures). To the middle of past century practically no one was interested in the indirect consequences of the introduction of innovation - by its action on the state of environment, on the population health, on the stability of [sotsiuma]. It is in no way simple to answer a question about that, positive or negative must be integral (i.e. taking into account all aspects) estimation of many inventions, including of such, without which contemporary life is unthinkable, beginning from the weapon of mass destruction and ending with the television, the alcoholic beverages and . The reconsideration of the role of inventor consists of the acknowledgement of the fact that not innovation itself must be the focus of attention, not economic, military and other possible “branch” estimations must determine its fate, but the comprehensive analysis of the consequences of its realization. As the prototype of this analysis serves ecological examination, but it takes into consideration only one of the necessary aspects, it is even then far from fully, it is not complete, being oriented, as a rule, to too close temporary a horizon. On its essence this work - prognostic, its news must scientific workers, since under no circumstances it will not become routine, formalized. Specifically, to the scientific forecast of the consequences of realizing of innovation must belong the decisive word, and not inventor, but forecaster must be central figure in the technical development of steady global . It is at the same time obvious that the possibilities of contemporary science for the realization of a similar prognostic analysis are completely insufficient. Moreover, they never will become sufficient.